We'll do a couple questions. Great to see everybody.
Hi.
Hi.
How is the contract with Canada affecting farmers and ranchers? Conflict with Canada.
Well, first of all, I think the president has been very, very clear, uh, starting with Liberation Day last year, which a lot of you were at, where he said, we are no longer going to be the subject of other countries tariff regimes, where on average, our great American exports are charged 15 percent. And when, uh, when we bring in and import, they're charged, other countries goods are charged about five percent.
That's not going to stand any longer. For agriculture, the reason this is so important is when we left this White House in the first term, for the last time in early 2021, we had an $8 billion agricultural trade surplus. When we came back four years later, that $8 billion had turned into $50 billion deficit.
And 2023 saw the largest fall in the farm economy, uh, profit in decades, if ever, $90 billion. So what we inherited was a heck of a set of issues. In just over a year, we now have 20 new trade deals. There was not one new trade deal under the Biden administration, 20 new trade deals. We've now cut that agricultural trade deficit in half, which is pretty remarkable.
This year, we're expecting record exports in ethanol, in corn. Dairy is going to be way up, and I'll get to the Canadian question, dairy especially, in just a second. Tree nuts are going to be up. We're really, really grateful. And more deals are being negotiated as we go. So I think it's important to level set that, first of all, that the president has reopened the world to American goods.
And from my perspective, American agricultural goods, which is part of the big reason and solution that we need for our farmers and ranchers. With regards to Canada, the president has been very clear for the last year and a half that the way they treat our dairy farmers in America is just not -- it is not going to continue any longer.
That the intent of the USMCA and other deals that went on was that our American dairy farmers would be treated as they deserve to be treated. And in fact, what has happened with the way that Canada is applying is sometimes a 200, 300 percent extra tariff on milk and dairy products going into Canada. So I know -- listen, I don't want to go much deeper than that, because I certainly don't want to get into the president or our incredible trade rep, Jamison Greer, who's in the middle of those negotiations.
But from an agricultural perspective, and specifically to our dairy farmers, the importance that we are battling for you, battling for that access, making sure that we're opening up the markets around the world, which we are, but also making sure that you're treated fairly by countries like Canada. Thank you for that question.
Secretary Rollins, you've certainly seen the reaction to the suspension of tariffs on ground beef from Republicans who say this is the wrong move, ranchers who are concerned about how this is going to impact them. Is the administration reconsidering that policy?
Well, a couple of things. On the president's announcement Friday morning on a temporary 90 day importation of 300,000 metric tons of ground beef, I want to make sure that's very clear. The way that we consume beef in America, we consume about 13 million metric tons every year. About 11 million metric tons, give or take, we raise here, we produce here.
We do have the best beef in the world. Our genetics are incredible in this country. Two to three million metric tons a year we do import. And that's year-over-year. That's nothing unusual. Of that two to three million metric tons that we import, that's mostly lean or ground beef. So that's why when the president announced, I think it even said in his truth on Friday morning, specific to ground beef, he is working to fill a gap, a pretty big gap in the supply chain from ground beef.
Of course, you've all heard we have the lowest cattle herd numbers, uh, on record. Uh, that really came down under the last administration. That wasn't a big, you know, cattle administration. We've now begun to change that. Our numbers two weeks ago show for the first time in ten years, we have heifer retention going up. So the good news is long term, we're stabilizing.
But for the short term, the president felt very convicted that as American consumers are paying more for beef, not our fault, our administration's fault, but as they are, that short, temporary fix was important. One other point, though, that I think will help tell the story a little bit better, 14 -- 15 months ago, we closed the ports along the southern border and stopped all importation of Mexican live cattle.
The reason we did that, of course, is because of the New World Screwworm, which we thought was eradicated in the 50s, uh, came back in 2021, 2022, made its way up toward the United States and towards our border states, cattle states. And so we closed those ports 14 months ago. Just opened yesterday the first port in Douglas, Arizona.
So we're now starting the movement of live cattle again. But in that 14 or 15 months, that was -- that equals about 1.4 million head of cattle that would have come into our country that did not, and those are all lean cattle. That's all ground beef, cattle, basically. So when you look at the 300,000 metric tons, the president announced, that equals between 500,000 and 700,000 head of cattle.
So that still doesn't even get us back to where we would have been if we hadn't had to close the port for the Screwworm. But I think the final thing to say is this, that I don't believe there has ever been a president more focused on agriculture or rural America, or our ranchers and our farmers than this president, that the long-term fight to open up more grazing land to ensure that our ranchers have what they need to build their herd, to make sure that we've got a stable market.
Yesterday we announced harvest to hallways, Bobby Kennedy and I did, which is a complete -- is that your question? I'll go to you next. Which is a complete recalibration of our school lunches, putting real food back at the center of school lunches. Protein, the new dietary guidelines is obviously at the very top of that for the first time.
And so what that means for our cattle ranchers, for our agriculture producers in America. Yesterday, the announcement on procuring more locally produced, nutrient dense food instead of opening up school lunches out of a plastic bag and sticking them into a microwave, which is what a lot of our schools are doing now.
We are going to change that. It may cost a little bit more money, but we are in this for the long run. We are in this to support our ranchers and our farmers, and we will make sure that we are doing everything necessary to rebuild the herd, to bring the cost of inputs down, to open up the world markets while opening up the domestic markets as well.
Go ahead, sir.
Can I follow up on [Inaudible]
Yes, go ahead and then we'll finish with you. Yeah.
[Inaudible] what specific countries have been in talks with the US about stepping up those beef exports, aside from Mexico?
I am not privy to talk about that. I think the conversations are still going on, and that's Ambassador Greer, who's finalizing what exactly that looks like. And I think the president is involved in that as well. Thank you. Yes.
The president announced, that you're making it sound like there isn't really a plan, essentially, for how they're going to step up these foreign imports from Mexico. Did he consult with you before he made that announcement?
You know, he and I have talked a lot about this for a very, very long time. Uh, I have not talked to him specifically about this specific announcement and what that looks like, but I do know he's working very, very closely with Jamison Greer on it. Yes, and then we'll finish with you. Yes, go ahead.
Thank you, Secretary Rollins. I want to go back to Canada for a second, because they're planning to match the US's tariff for tariff at this point. What's your concern for the impact on Americans, producers and consumers? And given that we have seen challenges with inflation and the economic concerns, how long can they sustain this situation?
Well, you know, again, I don't want to get ahead of the president. He is, from my perspective, the ultimate negotiator. I've seen a lot of people doubt his decisions and then I've seen them always work out in the trade realm, especially. And I'm just -- I'm really proud that he's willing to stand up and make the hard decisions.
There is no doubt that it causes concern amongst our farmers and ranchers, as it is a lot of unknown out there. But as the group of men and women in communities that have been his most avid supporters from the moment he came down the escalator in 2015. He has our ag producers at the very top of the list.
And we've seen this with all of the trade deals. Every one of those 20 new trade deals, whether it's soybeans or cotton or beef or dairy, AG is always at the top and that's because he has made it so. And I believe strongly that once they finish this next round of negotiations, or whatever you want to call it, that America will certainly be the better for it and that, and that our farmers and ranchers will benefit the most.
So thank you, and last question.
Quick question is actually this one, the fact that Canada has excluded soybeans, beef, pork, uh, it's a good sign for, uh, for AG. And second, as for the lunch and breakfast, how confident are you that the lower income family are going to be able to afford this?
Well, the school lunches are -- is basically a USDA program that USDA funds, uh, 30 or 40 million lunches every single day. So they're free. They're mostly free. There's some reduced lunch in there too but for families that can't afford it, uh, that's actually the purpose of the program and that's one of the reasons we're spending so much time and effort on it, is because for, for a lot of our families in America, that could be the best meal that they get all day.
So the importance of making sure that what is on the plate is very, very healthy, uh, just cannot be overstated. And so that's really what we're working on. And again, from my perspective, harvest to hallways, what this means for local producers to be able to sell to a really good customer, like a school district or a hospital, you know, this is obviously outside of school lunches, but hospitals that Bobby Kennedy is part of, the military with Pete Hegseth, really putting our farmers and ranchers in that real food back at the center of policy making is what we're working to do.
And the fact that Canada excludes beef, corn, soybeans, is that a good sign that there's a will to improve this?
No, there's no doubt. And I am in very close touch with our friends in Mexico, primarily because of New World screwworm, also because of the water situation, but also because, you know, Mexico is a very important trading partner as Canada is as well. And I think what the President done has shined a light on a lot of challenges in the USMCA, especially for our farmers and ranchers.
But your point is correct that really, this gets down to making sure our dairymen, at least from agriculture, our dairy men and women are amazing. I've been to several of their farms now, upstate New York, across Wisconsin, down in Texas um, that they have what they need to be able to trade fairly around the world.
And I'll finish with this, talking about school lunches and kind of tying it all together and putting real food, nutrient dense food back on the plates of our school -- of our school kids. This also includes milk and whole milk. And as we have battled constantly to make sure that we're getting all of these right foods and milk back into schools and back onto everyone's plates, dinner, breakfast, etc., I think that we're going to see a real renaissance for our dairy farmers.
Whether it's cottage cheese or yogurt or milk, we're seeing a big expansion across America in the investment in the infrastructure. This Canadian piece is a very important piece, and that's why the president is taking it on, but I have no doubt that once they are finished with the negotiation, either today or tomorrow or whenever, that we're going to be in a much better spot because of it. Thank you all so much, really great to be with everybody.
Thank you, all.