W- -- well, we, we've taken all the steps necessary for now. Uh, you know, we've got some things left s- -- uh, that we considered. But the bottom line is that, that we wanted to see on the ground [Inaudible], especially with people who have ships that are in there, how their people are doing, and so on. But, uh, everybody's told us exactly what I've just said that, that once we get the straits open, then, the amount of oil that can come through is gonna be bigger than we've ever seen.
It's hard because the Saudis have two million barrels a day and that's just capacity, and they're eager to make up for lost revenue. And the Emiratis, you know, h- -- have a large amount of oil. And, and so, uh, you know, we're having a free conflict, we're looking at about like, 20 million barrels a day, uh, net.
And I think that there's gonna be more coming out of it.
Can I ask you about the other airlines? They're, they're, we reported that the government is, is boxed on a schedule aid package that warrants to buy shares with a repository company.
Mm-hmm.
The existing debt holders and lenders are about to use some of them.
Mm-hmm.
They're [Inaudible] impact. The company doesn't have that much runway and cash left. What is the administration position now? Are you open to negotiating with the current lenders of Spirit, or is it a take it or lead it to offer?
Th- -- those, those are ongoing negotiations with, uh, the Commerce Department and the creditors. And so, I can't comment on those right now.
Is it, how much time does Spirit have left before they have to fully shut?
Um, it depends. The creditors can give them more time by helping them out if they're, if they want to hold this up.
So, what is the stress to the creditors? What is the administration --
That, that's not, I'm not involved with the negotiations.
Mr. Hassett, sir, how --
I'll come over this way, I promise.
So, how once the, once DOJ probe of the, you know, on the, you know, concluded in finality before he leaves-
Mm-hmm.
- has that gone, that's not done, so is it over?
Well, yes. So, so in fact, what, what we've said is that we want the Inspector General at the Fed to tell us, like, what the c- -- what is the source of the cost overruns. The Inspector General at the Fed is part of the Fed. So, it's extremely respectful of Federal Reserve independence to have their Inspector General look into something that's a massive multi-billion dollar cost overrun.
I expect that that person's probably already doing that. Uh, and so, to say that we're opposed to independence of the Fed by asking the Fed's own institutional, uh, you know, uh, uh, investigators to look into something that if I were running any agency in government and I saw a cost over like that and are running the agency, I'd ask my Inspector General to tell me what happened.
And, and so I don't think that it's in any way a threat to Federal Reserve independence. And so, I just think that, that, uh, Chairman Powell, soon to be former Chairman Powell, is incorrect. And finally, I think that, that this is a situation that I've, I've known Kevin Warsh for 25 years, and he's the kind of person with the strong leadership skills and diplomatic skills to get this thing resolved.
I'm highly confident he's gonna be confirmed. And that when he's confirmed, he's gonna go in there and he's gonna find a way to work this out.
Do you think the oil sanctions --
C- -- let me go this way a little. I think, uh, I'll come to you next in just a sec.
Oh, great. Uh, the war with Iran now, almost 60 days old. Going forward, how would you, uh, predict or assess the impact on jet fuel price?
Jet fuel prices, uh, you know, were, uh, an especially big concern at the beginning because the jet fuel on the West Coast, uh, was coming in from Asia. And Asia is one of the places most affected. B- -- so, we actually had, say, Korean, uh, refineries sending jet fuel to our West Coast refiners. And as an example, how have President Trump has taken every step to make sure that the impact of these, uh, higher prices and potential supply disrupts are minimized in the US. And so, we made the Jones Act, we got jet fuel into the West Coast, to the US. Uh, and again, our expectation is that everything's gonna, uh, increase the, supply will increase rapidly once the straits are open, and we're extremely hopeful.
Uh, you know, if you look at the Iranian economy right now, it's extremely on the ropes. Uh, they're having hyperinflation. Uh, they're running out of food. Uh, it, it's, you know, any, uh, the leadership of any country that cares at all about its citizens should make a deal.
That Jones Act waiver, I know extended for another 90 days. How does that, for people who may not be familiar with that, how does that impact, uh, every, um, you know, consumer?
Well, we, we 100% are more, uh, support American shipping. We think it's really, really important that we have shipyards in the US and we want them to be healthy, healthier than they've ever been. Uh, but in order to get, uh, the fuel from the Gulf to the West Coast, we had to waive the Jones Act, and we found that that was incredibly effective.
We think there were about eight million barrels of refined product that went to the West Coast to help, uh, reduce the price risks over there and make sure that there was jet fuel for the airports. And so, uh, that, that's why it was extended for 90 days b- -- but, because we had so much success within the program.
Can I come through there?
Kevin, why did gas prices suddenly spike yesterday, particularly in Great Lakes cities?
Mm-hmm. You know, that, that's something that we've asked to get a report on, but I haven't got a report yet. But the point is that, uh, we're heading towards summer months and, uh, the mixtures can change, but we've t- -- taken steps to make sure that, that p- -- could keep the ethanol in the summer. Uh, I don't know what's going on with it. It must be a specific refinery perhaps or, or a disruption, but I've not had a report on that yet.
You said that you're confident that the strait is going to open soon. What gives you that confidence? Just yesterday, your White House colleagues were saying-
Mm-hmm.
- that this blockade could stay in place for months.
Well, that's what could happen. And if you look at the stress, I'm talking as an economist, if you look at the economic stress that the Iranian people are under right now, that it's un- -- it should be unacceptable to any civilized leader.
Kevin, thanks. Kevin, I think, I mean, you're out in the media today. Tim Scott's been on the media. Steve Scalise is on the media saying that everything's gonna get better very quickly.
Mm-hmm.
Is this a push from the administration to convince the American people that the economy's not as bad as they're feeling in their pocket?
Oh, uh, well, let's look at the eco- -- the assertion that we're pushing to distract from a bad economy. We had a strong GDP report today that was actually unusually strong because it was a massive amount of capital spending because people are building factories, creating jobs, uh, putting machines in. And, uh, we have 54,000 people that are employed building factories that weren't employed building factories till President Trump took office.
Uh, if, uh, we had, uh, the GDP number would have been a lot higher except imports, uh, came, went up, but the imports were the highest quality imports you've ever seen. They're all capital goods, w- -- al- -- almost half instead of, like, you know, Chinese stuffed toys. And, and, and so, uh, right now, we've got that, we've got, uh, the initial claims for employment insurance, which is like a metric of our people losing their jobs are the lowest we've seen since the '60s. Uh, federal government employment is the lowest we've seen, which helps, uh, reduce, uh, budget pressures, the lowest we've seen since World War II. Uh, personal income is skyrocketing.
And, and so, the economic numbers are strong, and the GDP number reflects it as well.
Kevin, Kevin, a follow-up? So, what do you say to people that, that don't follow macroeconomics but-
People look in their wallets and they vote, and, and, and there's a massive economic literature that says that that's how you predict elections. There's Ray Fair, Yale, you can look it up. Uh, and what matters is, how are people doing when they, when they look at their own circumstances? And right now, the lowest number of people since the '60s are losing their jobs, incomes are growing at a rate that we've never seen during the Biden administration.
When people look at their own circumstances, Ray Fair's evidence shows that that's what impacts elections.
Kevin, a follow-up on that? If I can just ask one more, uh-
Let me come over here.
On that GDP estimate, can you address concerns about potential recession, or if the war doesn't end, seeing that that oil prices don't fall?
Uh, the, the sensitivity of the US to recession has declined sharply, uh, uh, f- -- uh, from oil, uh, because in the '70s, like, we were importing all of our oil, but now, we're an oil exporter and we produce oil. And so the, uh, it's the, and also, the energy share of GDP has gone down radically. And so, the oil shock in the '70s, uh, created a recession, but oil shocks today, I know they're extremely, uh, upsetting for people that are spending too much for gas and, and, and we're aware of that, and we're taking every step, uh, possible to reduce that short term fluctuation, but the bottom line is that Olivier Blanchard, the MIT professor, has a famous paper at the National Bureau of Economic Research that talks about why energy shocks don't cause recessions anymore, and, uh, you should look into that.
Sir, one more here.
Can you come down here?
Hey, thanks, Kevin.
Yeah.
Um, I asked the president at the Easter Egg Role, two weeks ago, war's impact on diesel fuel and fertilizer.
Mm-hmm.
Uh, those prices are really getting to trucking and farming overall-
Sure they are.
- shortage of fertili- -- shortage of fertilizer. At this point, do you have concerns about the long-term effects on food supply on the supply chain that trucking, since the president said to me at the Easter egg roll, uh, "We're gonna help by winning the war," and they'll deal with the, the short-term frustrations, but farmers are saying, "We don't have enough to plant our crop right now." So, what's the message to them?
There, there, there's not a shortage of fertilizer. Fertilizer's more expensive, and we're doing and taking a lot of steps to reduce, uh, the cost of fertilizer, and stay tuned on what those might be. But we've been having meetings. I have had two meetings this week, uh, over at the Act Department with Secretary Rollins to talk about how to get, uh, fertilizer prices down.
Sir, one more, what's the message to Michigan motorists who are upset about the increased price fertilizer, the higher gas prices? Is it that it's, it's transitory or --
Well, you know, by, uh, yes, it's transitory, but don't forget that we had a suicidal regime that told us that they were about to have nuclear weapons. It's like a fundamental threat to the future of our country, and President Trump took the old, bold stance of making the world a safer place in the long run, and there's a very short-term cost for that.
And he had the courage to stop this, uh, regime that's probably the worst regime since we've seen since the, since the Second World War on Earth.
But what-
And so, that's an appropriate, no, but that's, that's an appropriate thing for us to be doing. And I think that the American people support not having, you know, these terrorists, not having another 9/11, all those things that President Trump is doing to protect us. I got one, time for one more question.
I'm hoping for a new person. Is, is, ah, thank you.
How [Inaudible] can they just [Inaudible] oil and gas prices?
Y- 00 yes, so, so, we've been in constant, uh, communication with the oil companies, uh, and have been, uh, considering measures that we could take here in the US, uh, to increase US production really soon. And, uh, there are things, regulations that are holding up, uh, like, how quickly stuff can come through, uh, mines or, uh, or wells and, uh, we're studying, uh, those of how we can change those, and we've been talking to oil companies about that.
And so, uh, we're making a huge amount of progress in increasing energy production. We, uh, used, uh, federal authority to get, like, the Californians had shut down and actually operating, uh, offshore, uh, well, and, and, and we've opened that up, uh, using federal authority, and is producing oil today.
Uh, and so, and so yes, we've been working very, very closely with, uh, producers to make sure that the production is, uh, the production-reduction from the Gulf is minimized, the im- -- impact on the US. So, thank you, guys, for having me --
Thank you very much.
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