Got time for a couple?
I guess with this many people --
[Crosstalk]
I don't have my normal 8:30 meeting [Inaudible]
[Laughter] It won't start without you.
Would you like [Inaudible]
No, I'm okay. I'm a New Englander [Laughs]
[Crosstalk]
Mr. Hassett, can Americans expect the $2,000 rebate check that we've heard the President talk about?
Well, I, I think that when we studied the matter in the summer, uh, that we thought that deficit reduction might be the best use of those monies, but we've had a big surge in tax revenues. You've seen even a bit surplus in the latest monthly treasury report. And because of the surge in tax revenues, I think that's a position that Congress and the president are reconsidering.
So given, given those numbers --
-- in total, how much will that rebate cost administration? Um, and how do you compare that to how much the total tariff revenue annually will be?
Uh-huh. Uh, that, that's something that you can do an explainer of, uh, on your own. It depends on it -- It d- -- depends on, uh, where people decide to stop. Uh, very often, whether it's something like this that you don't give it to Mark Zuckerberg or something like that. And so, so it really depends on where the knobs are.
And right now, I can't give you guidance on that, but --
Do you have an estimate though, that you are working on?
We have estimates of all the different options, yes.
Kevin, when the president --
I'll go this way, and then I'll come this way. I promise.
-- when the president says that grocery prices are down, what numbers is he basing that off, given --
Uh-huh.
-- that's not true? And even Marjorie Taylor Greene has acknowledged that it's not accurate.
Right. Well, I, I guess the question -- Inflation is down. It's one of those things that very often when people talk about economics, they, they slip, uh, derivatives, as we say. And so the point is that inflation is way down. It averaged 5% under Joe Biden. It's about, running at about 2.5% right now. And, uh, the thing though is that, that people's purchasing power dropped by more than $3,000 because of the inflation of the last four years.
It's up by about $1,200 this year. And so purchasing power is improving, but we haven't closed the entire gap, and that's why people still feel the, uh, pain of the higher prices.
But grocery prices are up.
Well, not everything. I mean, egg prices are down.
Eggs and --
We used to talk a lot about those. In fact, it was your first question here --
Would you acknowledge --
-- at the White House, was --
[Inaudible]
Wait, why d- -- why haven't you covered the --
-- [Inaudible] prices?
-- lower egg prices?
-- prices. We certainly covered that, energy as well, but grocery prices are up of about 1.4% since Trump took office.
Right, which is a big decline, a big decline in the, uh, rate of inflation.
But the president says it's --
-- of grocery prices.
-- down, and they're up.
Inflation is down, is, is what he means. Yeah. So --
Does the president support reversing the firings under the shutdown? And does he support guaranteeing back pay if the Senate [Inaudible]?
The, the -- Right now, the president is grateful for the people, the cooler heads, that have opened the government. We're grateful that we're not gonna have, uh, hopefully massive flight disruptions during the Thanksgiving break, which would've caused massive economic disruption. And he's looking forward to what the final deal is, but he supports the final deal.
So the White House --
There has been a lot of, I guess, question about how much revenue the tariffs are going to bring in and --
Mm-hmm.
-- how much would have to be paid back if they fall. What is that number? How much money are these tariffs bringing in from a revenue standpoint?
Mm-hmm. Well, if you go to Customs and Border Patrol, they update that number, uh, almost, uh, every month, maybe, s- -- sometimes, uh, quicker than that. And I think the latest number for, so far this year is around 200 million. But you could look it up to get the exact number.
Is there -- but, but as you guys forecast out --
Yeah, that's just for this year. So if you're gonna have --
I understand --
Yeah.
-- but as you guys forecast out, what's the expectation for what would come in like for this fiscal year?
Uh, yeah, I guess, the, the, the OMB has, has the latest forecast on that, but I've just looked at the Customs and Border Patrol numbers, and it was about $200 billion.
Just to follow up, just to follow up on that question, just does the president support back pay for all federal workers?
Uh, the president supports the deal because the government opened. He's been a 100% supportive of that, yeah.
Would that include back pay? Would he guarantee back pay for all federal workers?
I, I think everyone's gonna get back pay. It looks like it's part of the deal.
Kevin, how big of a hit, financial hit have the airlines taken, in your estimation, due to the shutdown?
You know, I, I haven't seen estimates yet, but it's a serious, it's a serious hit. Uh, a- -- as an economist, since we've seen about 10% reduction in flights, you might assume that their revenue's down by about that much, uh, although sometimes it's not as big because if there's fewer flights, they might have higher ticket prices.
Uh, but th- -- I'll get a, I'll get a report out and get back to you.
You were asked about the 50-year mortgage thing on Fox. How seriously is that being considered by the administration?
Uh, uh, again, the, the issue is that, uh, that under, uh, President Biden mortgage rates went up by about, uh, four percentage points, and that about doubled the typical monthly mortgage payment. And because of that, we've seen like a, a real, uh, sharp reduction in first-time home buyers, especially and also a reduction in people's willingness to move.
And, uh, it's something that we take very seriously as a policy challenge. And extending the length of mortgages could reduce monthly payments by hundreds of dollars, and it's something we're taking very seriously.
Is that something that is being studied as an imminent change [Inaudible] Congress --
It would, it would --
Or is it more deliberative at this point, I guess I'm trying to say?
Uh, there, there, there's a lot of legal analysis, but it would, if it requires legislation, then it wouldn't be imminent.
Wouldn't that be the same as essentially renting? And how would homeowners build equity?
No, it wouldn't, um, because, uh, you would, uh, basically build equity, first of all, uh, a little slower, 'cause it's 50 years instead of 30 years or 15 years. 15-year fixed is often a great way to build early equity. But don't forget that you get the equity if the price goes up, and on average prices have tended to increase.
And so I don't think that the absence of equity is a serious concern about this. Uh, and the bottom line is that we need to -- It, it -- The, the average age of a first-time home buyer has gone up by about 10 years at just a few years. That is something that we're very serious about addressing. Okay, thank you guys very much.
Kevin, is the president actually considering a national housing emergency declaration?