Well, they got you guys all chained up. That's --
Mr. Hassett, is there a reaction to the jobs report this morning? And did President Trump know about this report when he said that the real numbers will come out next year?
President Trump knows that we're super optimistic about the future of the jobs numbers because we're seeing a massive blowout in capital spending and new factory construction, something that happened because of the tax reforms that we had. So people are allowed to expense factories. Capital spending is growing at a rate.
It was about eight percent over the first half of the year. It's accelerating in the third quarter, which is why GDP now has the third quarter at about three percent. And so like all the indicators that we're seeing, are that inflation is low and economic growth is solid. Income growth is solid as well. So that the only part of the data that's disappointing is the jobs numbers have been a little bit lower over the last three or four months.
But again, Goldman Sachs had a report out yesterday that said that the seasonals of the summer are kind of unusual. And then in August, typically, the advance number is about 60,000 to 70,000 lower than the final number ends up being big.
On Stephen Miran, what's the White House's justification if he is able to stay on at the CEA while also [Inaudible]
That's a matter between Steve and the President.
But do you think that there could be a conflict of interest there? [Inaudible]
Steve's a very honorable guy and I think that he'll do the job well if he's confirmed.
Kevin, if somebody is on leave from the CEA, how often -- like, how disconnected are they from the White House or connected to the White House while they're on leave, typically?
I don't recall anyone being on leave from the CEA, so -- but I'm sure that Steve will respect his job as an independent fed governor if he gets the job.
[Inaudible] tariffs [Inaudible] President Trump last night tell [Inaudible] that the tariffs are coming shortly. Do you have any update on a timeline? Are we talking about weeks, months? [Inaudible]
Yeah, that 232 investigation has been moving forward. I think that there'll be something to bring to the president within a few weeks, maybe even sooner than that. And then the president will judge on next steps.
[Inaudible]
I'm sorry, could you say it again? I didn't hear.
Would the companies that invest in the US get [Inaudible] the downstream products, the consumer electronics?
That's a work in progress for the 232.
India continues to import large amounts of crude even now after the sanctions were imposed. What are the trade negotiations looking like in the near future? Is there any momentum to go stronger on this?
I think that the trade team and the president are disappointed that India continues to fund Russia's Ukraine war and hopefully it's a diplomatic issue that it will have positive developments soon.
Following up on that --
Let this guy -- but I promise that I'll let everyone have a shot.
[Inaudible]
OK.
[Inaudible]
No, what I'm saying is that if you get the typical revision for August, which is about 60,000, then the jobs number would be about consistent with the other indicators that we're seeing. This is a lower number than seems like you would normally get given how strong. So for again, GDP now is saying that economic growth is about three percent, it's a pretty good estimate given all the real time data of where we are.
And normally, with a three percent growth, you would be talking, you know, 100,000 jobs or something. And so the jobs number is an anomaly and so the question is, you know, when we look at the final numbers, do we expect that the revision will be more consistent with the rest of the data, and that's usually what happens.
Do you have any concerns about the benchmark [Inaudible] coming out?
Not concerns. I'm looking forward to seeing what the benchmark revision is. But again, it highlights the fact that we've got to do a lot better job of collecting and fixing and seasonally adjusting the data because the revisions have been so huge. And if you think about it, like the previous revisions, which knocked about a million jobs off of the jobs rolls, could have had a big impact on policy both in Congress and the Federal Reserve.
And so it's just not an acceptable thing that the jobs numbers are so unreliable that they're being revised all the heck over the place. A completely different story if we have a million fewer jobs as happened the last time that there was a revision. And so that's one reason why President Trump thinks we need a new set of eyes over there at BLS to fix this problem.
The president wrote that we've lost India and Russia to China. What does that say about our relationship?
Well, we're certainly hoping that it improves.
[Inaudible]
I think that the fed will certainly want to consider, you know, what moves it would make. And I would imagine that when you set an agenda at the fed, the chairman of the fed sets the agenda, then they have options that they all consider and discuss. And I would guess that they'll be discussing -- the main market expectation is 25 basis points, but I would guess that there would be an expectation of discussion of a higher cut, but I wouldn't expect it to happen.
[Inaudible]
It's because the inflation numbers have come way, way down. It's on average about 1.9 percent since Trump took office. Anybody else?
Mr. Hassett?
Oh yeah.
Any connection between the jobs reports and immigration activity or deportation activity?
Yeah, there is. And again, like, so all the job creation in the US has come from native-born workers. Whereas in the Biden administration it would be like, maybe about half was foreign born. And so if the sort of supply of new illegal immigrants goes to zero, as it has, then there won't be a non-native-born workers taking a whole bunch of jobs from native-born workers.
And so that is an issue that the supply of new labor has certainly gone down a lot because of the closed border. Yeah.
[Inaudible]
I don't have a comment on the [Inaudible]
[Inaudible]
The unemployment rates have ticked up a little bit, but you know, right now, we're highly confident with the trends that native-born workers are replacing the illegal workers that are either now not new coming to the country or going back to their homes. So thank you very much, everybody. Thank you.